The currently Canon rebates are set to expire on November 22 (which is before Black Friday) which means Canon will likely replace those discounts with new disocunts or similar refurbished deals. Here is what Canon has offered over the years:
Black Friday 2011: Canon offered lens rebates ranging from $20-$200.
Black Friday 2012: Canon refurbished lens sale: 20% off all lenses and up to %30 off DSLRs.
Black Friday 2013: Canon refurbished lens sale: 15% off all lenses and up to 25% off DSLRs.
Basically, you don’t usually see big discounts on new lenses. I predict that the lens prices we are accustom to seeing are the same prices we will see on Black Friday and Christmas. So the 40mm STM will probably go for $150, and the 135mm f/2 will go between $900 and $1,000. If you are looking for Black Friday deals on lenses, I suggest buying refurbished (via Canon’s store) or used (Ebay).
Usually you can find better deals on DSLR’s than on lenses. Hmm… maybe Canon’s strategy is to get you to buy a DSLR during the holiday season, and then buy lenses throughout the winter spring and summer? Anyway it is safe to assume you will be able to get a 5D mkIII for under $2,500:
2014 Black Friday Canon 5D mkIII
Here is the EBay ad scan from2013. The price on the 5D mkIII was $2,445 shipped from an authorized reseller (not gray market, meaning you get the full Canon warranty). Also the T3i + 18-55mm seems like a very nice deal for $420. Although this year, you will be able to get a Canon T5 + 18-55mm + Canon 75-300 for $497, which is also a fair deal.
If we go back to 2012, the price for the Canon 5D mkIII was $2,500 shipped (gray market, I think). I’d say this was the best deal in the past few years. You got a great camera, (with no warranty) for less than the 2014 going rate. So what do I expect for 2014? A $2,500 Canon 5D mkIII shipped from an authorized retailer.
Other Canon Black Friday Deals to Expect
With the Canon 70D and 7D mkII being the top prosumer sellers, we may see some further price cuts to the 60D or 7D. The 60D has seen prices of $600 this year (upper $500’s ), and the 7D is currently at an all time low of $1,000, so I would definitely pounce on any deals bring the prices below those thresholds. The 6D is going strong, but last year saw a $1,600 price from an unauthorized seller on EBay, so I would expect similar this year. Again, the yearly refurbished sale is decent, it will probably be 15% off on lenses which kind of sucks, but who knows, maybe it will be 20%. And don’t forget you get free shipping from Canon’s store all the way until Dec. 31.